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Knowledge and Uncertainty

Learn the math behind uncertainty — and how to get rid of it!

Can you put a number on how much you don't know? (Sure you can!) When you learn something new, how should it change your beliefs about how the world works? (It depends!) Is there some formula for that? (Why, yes, there is.)

This course gives you tools for managing uncertainty and interpreting information. You will learn cutting edge mathematics like Information Theory, Bayesian Networks and Causal Inference, but without calculations getting in the way. The emphasis is on applying these ideas to deal with the uncertainty in your life.

13

175+
1. 1

Introduction

Meet a new way of thinking about uncertainty!

1. Guess Who

What is the fastest way to learn?

2. Find the Counterfeit Coin

Apply information theory to solve a classic puzzle.

3. What's the Fastest Language?

See how Information Theory even governs the way we speak.

2. 2

Information Theory

Learn how to put a number to how uncertain you are about anything, from 'who did it?' to the bits and bytes on your computer.

1. Included with

Measuring Uncertainty

Learn why a 'bit' is the perfect unit for measuring your uncertainty.

2. Included with

Information Decreases Uncertainty

How much does this hunch decrease your uncertainty?

3. Included with

Entropy

What is the true meaning of entropy?

4. Included with

Compression

What has Information Theory got to do with computers and the byte sizes of your files?

3. 3

Bayesian Thinking

To have a scientific mindset we need to change our opinions when new information comes in. But should we weigh new evidence against what we already know?

1. Included with

A Medical Examination

Should you believe that you have a rare and terrible disease if your test says so?

2. Included with

Bayes' Rule

How to update your beliefs when you learn something new.

3. Included with

The Monty Hall Problem

See how Bayes' Rule sheds light on this perplexing probability problem.

4. Included with